US Recession or GDP Contraction 2025-2026

Name: Will the US experience a recession in 2025 or 2026, as determined by the NBER, or will the seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from the previous quarter be less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the BEA?
Start: 2026-05-01T20:33:22.654Z
End: 2027-01-31T00:00:00.000Z

Will the US experience a recession in 2025 or 2026, as determined by the NBER, or will the seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from the previous quarter be less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the BEA?

External market source

ACTIVE

YES12%

NO88%

Closes Jan 30, 2027, 7:00 PM ET